(China Chemical Network news) The current price of ammonium chloride has changed from a sharp rise in the first half of the year to a sharp fall. Compared with the high price this year, the decline is more than 20%, which is the largest decline in the past two years. In the afternoon, the supply pressure on the ammonium chloride market has increased, and it is still some time to get out of the trough, and the firestorm market in the same period last year is difficult to replicate.
After the second half of last year, the price of ammonium chloride has strengthened significantly, one of the important reasons is the export factor. First, direct exports, due to the implementation of zero tariffs on ammonium chloride exports last year, the export volume increased, and the total export of ammonium chloride was nearly 600,000 tons, a record high. Second, indirect exports, after the second half of last year, nitrogen and phosphorus binary fertilizer exports abnormal fire, monthly exports are more than 380,000 tons, 8, 10, 11 months is more than 600,000 tons, annual exports reached a record 3.96 million tons, equivalent to indirect exports of ammonium chloride more than 1.5 million tons.
However, this year, due to the sharp increase in tariffs on the export of ammonium chloride and nitrogen and phosphorus binary fertilizer for fertilizer, the export of both aspects has decreased significantly. According to customs data, from January to July, China exported 163,000 tons of ammonium chloride for fertilizer, down 43.65% year-on-year. Although non-fertilizer ammonium chloride continues to implement zero tariffs this year, the export volume has grown rapidly, but because its absolute export volume is small, it has little impact on the overall export of ammonium chloride. The cumulative export of nitrogen and phosphorus fertilizer from January to July was 505,000 tons, down 59.55% year-on-year.
The sharp decline in the export volume of ammonium chloride will increase the supply of the domestic ammonium chloride market. However, looking at the domestic market, the demand of compound fertilizer manufacturers is weakening. In China, ammonium chloride is mainly used for the production of compound fertilizer, and the amount directly applied by farmers is very small. After July, the trend of the compound fertilizer market is sluggish, and the overall operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises is not high, especially small compound fertilizer manufacturers, most of them stop for maintenance or low-load production, resulting in poor demand for ammonium chloride.
In addition, the price of urea fell sharply, which also led to the downward price of ammonium chloride. After the middle and late May, due to the international urea prices fell sharply, domestic demand weakened and other factors, domestic urea prices fell sharply, leading market Shandong urea factory ton price fell below 2000 yuan mark, compared with the beginning of May fell by more than 400 yuan.
In the situation that the export and domestic demand are not strong, the production of ammonium chloride is increasing. According to the data released by the National Development and Reform Commission, in the first half of this year, China's soda ash production of 14 million tons, an increase of 6.4%, ammonium chloride is a soda ash by-product, according to the calculation, the first half of the national production of ammonium chloride in about 6 million tons, a record high in the same period. In the second half of the year, new installations such as Jiangsu Shilian Chemical Company with an annual output of 1 million tons of ammonium chloride will be put into operation, and now there is sufficient supply of coal power and natural gas, ammonium chloride production is expected to further increase.
Therefore, although the demand for ammonium chloride will improve with the arrival of the winter wheat fertilizer season, it is difficult to appear last year's firestorm market.
